Elan survival rate

[paddy]

Anyone seen this?

http://www.topgear.com/uk/photos/galler ... ?imageNo=3

Paddy

[65sunbeam]

"We recently learned from the DVLA that the Lotus Elan is the hardiest classic car... in the world. And by that we mean number of cars still taxed or SORN'd versus the number built in the first place.

8955 were built, 2151 are still taxed, and 1210 are SORN'd. That's a survival rate of 37.5%. Perhaps Lotus should start building these again...?"

Actually the survival rate is much higher-they did not take into account the numer of Elans that were exported all over the world and are still taxed and are road legal or are just sitting in the garage awaiting restoration! Interesting numbers....

[paddy]

... or are now non-road-legal competition cars, which must be a reasonably high fraction of type 26s.

Paddy

[rodlittle]

Ive just contributed to that number
well of course they cant rust away can they that must help a lot
rod

[billwill]

"We recently learned from the DVLA that the Lotus Elan is the hardiest classic car... in the world. And by that we mean number of cars still taxed or SORN'd versus the number built in the first place.

8955 were built, 2151 are still taxed, and 1210 are SORN'd. That's a survival rate of 37.5%. Perhaps Lotus should start building these again...?"

Actually the survival rate is much higher-they did not take into account the numer of Elans that were exported all over the world and are still taxed and are road legal or are just sitting in the garage awaiting restoration! Interesting numbers....

And those that have not been SORNed because they were already off the road before the SORN regulation started.

[Quart Meg Miles]

well of course they cant rust away can they that must help a lot
rod

That wasn't an original design feature, Rod!

[MickG]

Any comments Tim on the quoted number built and the number surviving?

Mick G

[jimj]

Don`t forget that this statistic is comparing like with like, surely, so those missing but existing would be proportional with other marques. This assumes that anything Top Gear reports is factual.
Jim

[billwill]

Perhaps one reason for the high survival rate, is that the car is so lovely, that many of us have kept the same actual car for many decades.

I bought mine in 1969.

[Mazzini]

And just think of all the Elans in the US, Japan and Australia.

Sorry - typo UK for US now corrected.

[billwill]

And just think of all the Elans in the UK, Japan and Australia.

The DVLA figures are the UK figures, but as you say doesn't include USA, or Japan or Australia and some in South Africa and South America.

[AHM]

I suspect that this is a combination of the bright people at Top Gear and the bright people at the DVLA referring to the DVLA?s extremely inaccurate database.

That Top Gear actually published the figures shows a complete lack of care.

It took me about 20 seconds to check howmanyleft.com, and conclude that there are about 2000 Lotus elans of all descriptions.... So that includes +2?s M100?s etc etc

I thought they had researchers to find out these things, and editors to check the integrity. Looks like they were too lazy to give a s*** so put ?in the world? for humour.

[trw99]

The howmanyleft.com site is inaccurate and can not be used for any intelligent analysis of this question.

If you just go back four months I made this posting lotus-elan-f19/sprint-numbers-t26781.html#p178373 followed in January with an article in the Club Lotus News entitled 'How many Elans left?'.

I quote from the final paragraph of that article:

"This is out of a total known production of 1408 Sprints. So we have details on 57% of Sprint production and are aware of 46% still being alive in one form or another. If this is transposed to total Elan production of 9000 (a very round figure for an non-verifiable figure!), 57% gives us 5,130 and 46% gives 4,140. If this rough figure is near the truth, that?s a healthy number of Elans still around. I know this is a bit of fun though; we?ll never get the true figure!"

So let me put this in simple terms. Extrapolating from my known Sprint data, it would be fair to assume that worldwide, there may be as many as approximately 4,000 Elans and Plus 2s extant.

I'm sure any statisticians amongst us will knock all sorts of holes in this figure. And in fact I would assume that the real figure would be slightly less, since the older cars probably have not survived at the same rate as the newer ones.

Tim

[AHM]

The howmanyleft.com site is inaccurate

Indeed! I wasn't suggesting that it was. But it is the DVLA data to which Top Gear refer.

and can not be used for any intelligent analysis of this question.

As the basis of the statement made by Top Gear it is the only data that can be used. To use anything else would be answering a different question.

I equally think your statistics are a guess. Given that the DVLA data is an accurate representation of "registerd vehicles" and they only have 230 sprints listed where did all the others go? they can't all be off the road not registered.

the M100 figures are interesting - 1329 of 1485 (ish only goes back to '95)SE's and 358 of 400 S2's that is 89% survival rate

If you take those off TG's 3361 -1687 = 1674 (60's elans) - where are the other 2326?

[trw99]

I equally think your statistics are a guess.

I repeat: ?I first started to keep an annual total of Sprints on my private register back in 2007. Each December I have a re-count to see how many more I have come across. In the last two years I have also kept a tally of how many of those Sprints I know of are still alive, whether on or off the road, in a garage or undergoing restoration. It could also give some indication of the overall number of Elans that might still be around, though I know that statistically it is a rough measure. I know this is a bit of fun though; we?ll never get the true figure!?

Given that the DVLA data is an accurate representation of "registered vehicles" and they only have 230 sprints listed where did all the others go? They can't all be off the road not registered.

We know 651 Sprints worldwide are still in existence. 230 of those are registered ? according to DVLA ? for the road in the UK. Out of the remaining 421, some will be SORN, some will be unrecorded because they went off the road and into a barn pre 1977 when the DVLA computerised and the remainder will be abroad.

If you take those off TG's 3361 -1687 = 1674 (60's elans) - where are the other 2326?

My figures are and have always been worldwide. You ask your question based only on UK registered Elans. So the other 2326 are outside the UK, or SORN, or stuck in a barn and unrecorded.

Tim