The recent thread by Peer in Denmark regarding his latest acquisition MTO120F early +2 has got me thinking. Craig Elliot points out that only one of the original Lotus press cars seems to be still registered as on the road which is just 10% of the original which if applied to the total number of +2's made sort of equals a small number left say 450 - 650 cars.

I personally think that figure is high, I doubt if there are more than 200 on the button roadworthy examples in the UK. For the rest of the world probably another 150. The other 200 - 300 cars are the SORN or unlisted examples waiting in barns and garages. (SORN = Statutory Off Road Notification in the UK).

I have sent a note to Anne-Marie at Club Lotus asking if she can give a running total of members cars, of course she probably won't be able to give too many details other than an actual figure (if at all) and if we ask other clubs such as LDC we may get into a situation of duplication pushing up the numbers as many people are members of both just to get the magazines. I don't think we will ever get a true picture unless the DVLA releases a figure for UK cars, which it patently won't.

If I put an advert in a national newspaper offering £10,000 to all owners of driveable +2's to get in and drive to The Mall in London next Sunday, I doubt that I would spend a million or that we would cause a traffic jam.

any thoughts?

Regards

Give me 8 weeks and i will have my plus 2 in a container back to the UK and in the Mall for my 10000 pounds



cheers
Rohan

Here in Denmark we have 18 +2´s registered in the club. On top of that I know of at least one other +2 130.

Of those around 20 cars approximately i would guess that only 6-8 of them are road worthy and in regular use. The rest of the cars under restauration or just waiting in the garage for someone with time and motivation.

But we have 110 seven´s S1, S2 & S3 registered in the club of which I think most of them are in regular use. Thats alot in my opinion

Peer

I think that there is at least 1200 worldwide
We have 50 cars known in France. I would imagine another 20 sit in barns or are owned by members of regional car clubs other than the CLF, so thats 70 total.
Total number made I beleive made up as follows:-
Original Chassis Numbering 2536 (Robinson/Ross)
Subsequent Chassis Numbering GB "L" 2013 (P-O Håkansson's Register)
Subsequent Chassis Numbering Export "M" 381 (P-O Håkansson's Register)
Subsequent Chassis Numbering US "N" 310 (Lotus Elan.net Gordon Sauer)
Well that makes 5240 !

I beleive that although the number in the UK has diminished some what , they have been exported to countries all over the world not showing up on any DVLA listing. The "export" marker only being a relatively recent addition. According to Lotus Archives, France only had about 25 cars originally, so our numbers are increasing?????????

Some people would say I'm mad , Doctors , Psychiatrists , Experts in Mental Health but I think there are Loads of +2s out there!

Back to the therapy and my oil leaks now
Terry

So Alan - what time do you want me to arrive at the Mall on Sunday?

C

Working with a sample of only 10 against a population of 5000 yields a high margin of error, around 30%.....

I think this is approximately right in a crude analysis.......I am only a market researcher, mind. Looking forward to being corrected!

While it's nothing more than a very wild guess, the 10% figure equating to something like 450-500 cars +/- 150 has a strange resonance with the number (10% or 584) suggested by Yandy based on car sales and the application of wildlife population estimating techniques - see:

elan-plus-f13/plus-the-road-totals-t18380-15.html

Remember though that my very dodgy estimate is of those ON THE ROAD in going through the list there were a couple that were taxed within the last 10 years so could yet be lurking in garages ready to catch an unsuspecting Lotus fan... so Terry's assertion that there are more than 1200 left in total could still be right.

That said, I've been to quite a few Lotus and national classic car events and if there were 450-500 cars left running I'd have expected to see more.

What is it about the inappropriate application of stats and science, smoke, mirrors and seaweed bothering that suckers me in every time...???



C

I suspect the figures for plus 2's are low, I believe that because of (formerly) their bargain price, this has meant that they have been broken up to serve the escort mk 1+2 rally / race people or indeed other lotus owners & breakers.

However I'm pleased to say that my plus two has now passed its test and can join the parade if necessary!

Joking aside, I actually think it would be kind of nice to have a Sunday run into London. No parking or congestion charges and probably loads of tourists to take snaps and lap up the crazy Brits in their amazing old sports cars.

Now; if we could get Horseguards Parade for parking that would be really special.

Regards

Hi

Ace Cafe have a regular meet, you just missed the TVR + Lotus + Ginetta + Noble night (6pm 18 November 2009).

Never been myself as London traffic did not appeal when I lived in London, even less now.

Jason

I think that “regular use” when talking of Lotuses has to be defined as…. what? registered and running? or at least able to run? I do not know. ... Anyway, I happen to believe that 1000-1200 is a credible number (about 20% of cars produced). Here in TN, USA I know of 5 Elan plus 2 on the road... well one needing some minor work to be roadworthy. Plus there is another one complete but about $4000 away from being drivable. So in a small state such as TN, there are 5 cars on the road (sort of). I know that in NY that number is much higher (12) and in California it may easily double that number. So it is not unreasonable to assume about 7 per state, average; that would make 350, subtract 20% --just in case I am being too optimistic--and we have about 280 cars running (again, sort of). Then, we will have to add Canadian Lotus +2s, as well as cars in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Jamaica, etc. (There are 3 that I know in Mexico). So lets say 330-350 in the Americas. Add the UK, Europe, Australia and rest of the world

MGB experts estimate 20% of all MGBs ever produced are still on the roads (or between the garage and the road) why would Lotus numbers be lower? Yes, MGBs’s parts are cheaper and more readily available, so it is rust. I would say 20% is a reasonable estimate.

Surviving percentages run a considerable gamut. For the Type 14 Elite of which around 1000 were produced, Mike Ostrov knows of over 700 still around. There is an annual Elite owners meeting in the LA area, and around 6 Elites are driven there. For the Laguna Seca Historic Car races in 1995 when Lotus was the featured marque, there were such a number driven there I didn't even count them. And these were the hardy people who drove a reputedly fragile car quite long distances to attend.

The Elite may be somewhat more precious than the average car, with a higher survivability percentage, so the percentage of surviving Elans and +2s will be less but probably is greater than the survivability of the more plebean MG/AH/etc entry level cars which to a certain extent were more disposable cars.

Just my thoughts - what do I know?

David
1968 36/7988

David, of the 700 odd Elites known to exist, only about 200 - 300 are on the road / track. There are many that are in 'long term' storage, usually awaiting the time / energy / enthusiasm / money to restore. Mine was taken apart 15 years ago by a guy who wanted to race it, but didn't get beyond the taking-apart stage. It was then sold to another guy who wanted to build a racer, who looked at the pile of bits for 10 years...and then sold it to me.

I think it's the same story with Elans. It seems that many have been tucked away, in the 70s / 80s, by young lads who's 2 seater days got replaced by a family. Some of those are now emerging after a 20 or 30 year slumber, but I'll bet that there are many more sitting in garages awaiting their fate.

Brian Buckland's Elan is one of the few I know that's been on the road continuously as demonstrated by it having done over 600,000 miles, and that's the sort of mileage a 42 year old car will have if it's been used regularly. As most Elans seem to have something between 60,000 and 150,000 miles on the clock, I would estimate the number in regular use as being somewhere around 3 or 4.....maybe 5 at a push. Unless you count 1500 miles a year for the odd potter in the summer as regular use.

Mark

Tricky one this.. I would class my +2 as a regular use car, but it hasn't turned wheel in anger since New Year's eve, last year due to its ongoing resto (end of the month, maybe..). However, my records indicate that in November/December last year it did 2,500 miles, so it has only done 2.5k miles in the last year. In the previous 8 years it averaged around 8k miles pa and I have spoken to several other users who do 'real' mileage, so I think your estimate of 3-4 in regular use as a bit pessimistic. Should this exclude Zetecs?

Regular users of any old car will soon discover what fails on a regular basis and deal with it. For me this has been cylinder head gaskets, shock absorbers, wheel bearings and most recently chassis (sorry steel sub assembly) fatigue. Water pump has never been touched; electrics look after themselves once you have good earths; engine gets regular oil changes; tyres seem to last forever. Once the basics had been sorted, costs for looking after the car were no more than a modern (assuming dealer servicing). My Vauxhall Omega had two engine failures in 4 years, the first requiring a replacement engine (GBP3k), the second a head gasket failure resulting in me scrapping the car..

The downside to all this use is that the cars will wear out; carpets, paint, chrome, seats, trim etc so I took the step of commissioning a major rebuild, knowing that I would never have the time to complete the work in a realistic timescale. Expensive, yes, but I will have a car that is ready to do another 200k miles, incorporating some modern tweaks, but still a twin cam. I have to say, that as a full resto virgin, I had an optimistic timescale.... but I am still hopeful that it will be finished before the full 12 months.

Is mine in regular use? It will be..

Jeremy

In the case of the press cars listed, there was only one with current tax - this means it must have had an MOT (UK roadworthyness test) and have been insured at the time of issuing the disc. I'd guess you wouldn't do this unless you were going to use the car at some point. All of the others were either "unheard of" by the DVLA - which either means they had a change of reg plate or died/went into very long term storage many years ago, or were recognised but the date of liability was at least 3+ years ago.

FWIW - I do roughly 3-5000 miles a year in mine which I'd class as regular use...

Craig