The EU Referundum for the UK.

[rcfurse]

Let me make a prophecy.
In ten years time we will have no Japanese car makers in the UK.
In ten years time we might still have Aston Martin, Morgan and Lotus if we are lucky.
The City of London will be 50% of what it is today. As it earns nearly 33% of all the tax that will be VERY significant.
The City business will have been deliberately "picked off" by EU regulations.
Airbus will no longer make all their wings (or maybe even ALL their wings) at Broughton.
75% of Welsh farmers will have given up. It's hard to sell lamb into France with a 40% tariff.
The EU will, through regulations, pick off the pharmaceutical and media businesses too.


But I am sure it will all be OK if we just ignore the facts, have "confidence" in ourselves and believe in "the ?350m a week we send to Brussels" fixing everything.
Am I being too cynical?

[terryp]

Let me make a prophecy.
In ten years time we will have no Japanese car makers in the UK.
In ten years time we might still have Aston Martin, Morgan and Lotus if we are lucky.
The City of London will be 50% of what it is today. As it earns nearly 33% of all the tax that will be VERY significant.
The City business will have been deliberately "picked off" by EU regulations.
Airbus will no longer make all their wings (or maybe even ALL their wings) at Broughton.
75% of Welsh farmers will have given up. It's hard to sell lamb into France with a 40% tariff.
The EU will, through regulations, pick off the pharmaceutical and media businesses too.


But I am sure it will all be OK if we just ignore the facts, have "confidence" in ourselves and believe in "the ?350m a week we send to Brussels" fixing everything.
Am I being too cynical?

I honestly believe you are being too up beat. I actually think it will be much worse than that.
The funny thing is , when I posted here 3 years ago and said what would happen (which has now happened) I was in the minority. We have some very bad times ahead with not much hope around.

[69S4]

Maybe someone from north of the border could comment on how the union is going to look to the Scots the day
after Boris drags us out of the EU and into the uncharted waters of the world trade agreement.

[john.p.clegg]

The vocal minority of the Scottish,Welsh and Irish all want independance...the silent majority are quite happy with the way things are...that's why they're silent...

John

[mark030358]

Most people I know voted to leave due to the the belief that immigration was out of control and a loss of identity was creeping in. Be this right or wrong that?s why most people voted to leave the EU, irrespective of the fact that equal numbers come from other parts of the world. If the EU had given Cameron something 3 years ago we would not have this mess. To talk about companies leaving the EU after Brexit, they have been doing it for years. Anyway, opinions are like noses, we all have one....

Table 1: UK population estimates and annual growth rates, 1960s to 2020s
Decade Initial population 10 year growth in population Annual growth rate (%)
1960s 52,372,500 3,259,700 0.61
1970s 55,632,200 697,500 0.12
1980s 56,329,700 907,800 0.16
1990s 57,237,500 1,648,600 0.28
2000s 58,886,100 3,873,400 0.64
2010s? 62,759,500 4,600,200 0.71
2020s? 67,359,600 3,993,000 0.58
Source: Office for National Statistics

Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds.
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with with EU grants.
Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.
Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.
Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.
Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
ICI integration into Holland?s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs.
Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of ?80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.
JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, brought up companies in the UK with ?20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.
UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.
Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.
Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.
Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU.

Hey ho

[Mazzini]

Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexite ... singapore/

Hey ho indeed.

[Frogelan]

Look at the common theme in your list:

- British owners indeed sell up on a regular basis (Cadbury is a very good example) and often do not try to build up or adapt their companies (this is proudly touted as "inward investment"). Cadbury is now Mondelez (US) and Rowntree is now Nestl? (Switzerland). Have a closer look at "Entrepreneurs tax relief": you will quickly understand why...

- It is not the "EU lending money". It funds companies seeking to relocate to lower cost (and dare I say it, for higher productivity and higher skilled locations) to areas benefitting from regional assistance. When Nissan, Sony, Toyota, etc invested in Britain, it was not for the culinary expertise or for the weather...it was because of EU funded regional aid and aid from central government and in the case of the car industry, it involved a single union and very specific recruitment of skilled folk.

- Companies also have a distinct preference for being located in the Eurozone as this avoids exchange shocks to both sales and purchases. Britain had an unfortunate experience of early alignment with the predecessor of the Euro. However, to be fair Britain has very successfully devalued sterling against the Euro and the US dollar to make itself more competitive.

- Britain has a very serious problem of education and training. It is very difficult for small companies to find educated staff. Small and medium companies are regarded as sub-standard employers by many British people. A pro-Leave friend of mine runs such a business in the Midlands. Out of 12 staff, 4 are from the EU27 as he simply cannot find skilled technicians and he has even raised their pay to keep them during the current meltdown.

- Population has increased in most European countries with the possible exception of the poorer Eastern states where folks have relocated to Britain, France and Germany. It makes a lot of sense to try to balance Economic growth (by industrial relocation) so that all European neighbours can flourish and this avoids much of the economic migration. When economic growth is imbalanced, this leads to political instablility as witnessed by the brexit breakdown and the gilet jaunes to give the closest examples.

- Britain is not alone to have suffered relocations. Just ask any Frenchman, American...or Chinaman. It happens all the time as products, markets and countries change. The forces behind these changes were explained by the earliest classical economistis. This is nothing new.

- For a company such as Jaguar Land Rover, this was part of the long history of dubious management and some very brave shareholders trying to put it right. In recent history, Ford lost a small fortune on JLR and Aston Martin and Tata have reaped the (short term) benefits. In order to reduce the weighted average cost of production, production in low cost places will help the bottom line.

- The partial move to Slovakia is important for EU content reasons. It is obviously easier export than from a country with trading relationships than a country that has to build these from scratch. WTO tarifs are the reason why countries try to have Trade Agreements. You could also cite the JLR production in Austria, the Mini (BMW) production in Holland and Austria and the recent relocation of part of the engine production for BMW Oxford to Leipzig.

- With respect to the British car market, Brits tend to favour European or Japanese manufacturers over their own. I recently went to see Race Retro at Coventry and drove around the area for about 90 minutes. I hardly saw a single Jaguar...why is this? I saw plenty of BMWs and Mercedes.

I live and work in France and it is with great sadness that Europeans see the nervous breakdown in the UK, principally based on exotic banter by ambitious nationalists who refuse to see the reality of life or acknowledge simple truths.

This can happen to every country and in France, folks do realise that the gilet jaunes movement (I'm not talking about the riots which have clearly been created by the far right and far left) has highlighted regenional and social disparities. The key thing is whether politicians are able to or wish to deal with the issues or simply hijack the anger or anxieties for xenophobic purposes.

I hope this helps.

[UAB807F]

I can understand most of the viewpoints raised since this topic has been resurrected but think some of the "you're mad to leave" views are missing the point. For example, a snip from the last post on the thread....

I live and work in France and it is with great sadness that Europeans see the nervous breakdown in the UK, principally based on exotic banter by ambitious nationalists who refuse to see the reality of life or acknowledge simple truths.

It's really not like that where I live. I could turn that around and ask you to look long and hard at Target2 liabilities and the recent (this week) speech from the ECB. The Eurozone is in deep trouble and refuses to do anything other than kick cans down the road, this is also a "reality" and simple truth.

For the voters in the 1970s referendum, voting to stay within the EEC was all about trade. And if the EU had stayed as a trading only club, then I doubt there would have been any move to leave. But it's not, it's attempting to become another USA or USSR.

I don't see why, for example, I should have to consider the views of someone in Slovenia or Estonia when deciding environmental or energy policy for the UK, but the way it's structured, we do.

People voted to leave for many reasons, just as people had varied reasons for remaining. But the simple fact is that the UK isn't trying to snub Europe, the frequently expressed desire to have a trade deal (even though we import more than export) shows that the UK is open to Europe.

We will still holiday, have visa free travel and trade with Europe just as we do with many non-EU countries after we've left, so quite simply I don't see the issue or reasons to be upset about it.

[terryp]

We will still holiday, have visa free travel and trade with Europe just as we do with many non-EU countries after we've left, so quite simply I don't see the issue or reasons to be upset about it.

You are correct. It will just be that it will cost more. There will be delays at ports, just like goods arriving from outside the EU which also have free trade arrangements.
You cannot get the benefits of the single market and shared regulatory bodies without paying for it.
Any company which use just in time , will either have to rent additional storage in the UK and stockpile to ease these delays or move into another EU country.

[2cams70]

We'll I'd like to see a photo of the three stooges all lined up together shaking hands, the Don, Borrie and Kim-Jong II and all sporting the Kim-Jong haircut!

[UAB807F]

You are correct. It will just be that it will cost more. There will be delays at ports, just like goods arriving from outside the EU which also have free trade arrangements.
You cannot get the benefits of the single market and shared regulatory bodies without paying for it.
Any company which use just in time , will either have to rent additional storage in the UK and stockpile to ease these delays or move into another EU country.

I think you're referring there more to the customs union than a simple trade agreement, although any future UK/EU agreement can include whatever both parties want it to.

But as you mention it, let's look at JIT operations. Under the current system let's imagine an item takes 24hrs delivery now and possibly 48,72 or 168 hrs without CU. All they do is build that lead time, whatever it is, into the schedule. They might build up more stocks, they might not, it's an opinion and will depend on the criticality of any delays to the business. But right now, if a factory expects a shipment on an 8 hr schedule and there's an accident blocking any motorway it's delayed, so these folks are used to dealing with contingencies.

It doesn't automatically follow that they will move their factories abroad specifically because of JIT deliveries. If the labour costs justify it they will, if it's cheaper to operate as now, they will stay. Without EU regulation, we have the ability to make it preferable for them to stay.

As we have seen in a previous post, industry moves to low cost countries all the time and the UK is currently a higher cost area for unskilled labour, so jobs move. I don't personally blame the EU for this, it's market forces. If it wasn't to European countries it would be China, India, etc.

[terryp]

You are correct. It will just be that it will cost more. There will be delays at ports, just like goods arriving from outside the EU which also have free trade arrangements.
You cannot get the benefits of the single market and shared regulatory bodies without paying for it.
Any company which use just in time , will either have to rent additional storage in the UK and stockpile to ease these delays or move into another EU country.

I think you're referring there more to the customs union than a simple trade agreement, although any future UK/EU agreement can include whatever both parties want it to.

But as you mention it, let's look at JIT operations. Under the current system let's imagine an item takes 24hrs delivery now and possibly 48,72 or 168 hrs without CU. All they do is build that lead time, whatever it is, into the schedule. They might build up more stocks, they might not, it's an opinion and will depend on the criticality of any delays to the business. But right now, if a factory expects a shipment on an 8 hr schedule and there's an accident blocking any motorway it's delayed, so these folks are used to dealing with contingencies.

It doesn't automatically follow that they will move their factories abroad specifically because of JIT deliveries. If the labour costs justify it they will, if it's cheaper to operate as now, they will stay. Without EU regulation, we have the ability to make it preferable for them to stay.

As we have seen in a previous post, industry moves to low cost countries all the time and the UK is currently a higher cost area for unskilled labour, so jobs move. I don't personally blame the EU for this, it's market forces. If it wasn't to European countries it would be China, India, etc.

For frictionless trade you need the single market and the custom union, although the customs union is a bit of a red herring as it just essentially means a common customs policy and zero tariffs, nothing more. Exactly like Turkey has with the EU, still massive delays at the border checking country of origin and regulatory compliance.
As for just in time, it will be irrelevant if the UK crashes out and is on WTO rules, no car manufacturer will survive the tariffs.
Happy Days.

[Frogelan]

Difficult not to agree with much of Terry's argument.

The "positives" are that e-vehicles have fewer parts and are easier to assemble if we just stick to the car industry. This will reduce some of worries.

Tariffs will be the deal breaker, even if Sterling depreciates further. Trade agreements take many years to agree.

Customs are a serious nuisance: I recently bought parts from the US and whereas the USPS took only a few days to send the goods, they were stuck with Parcelforce in Coventry for two weeks.

This only serves to underline the challenge !

For me, Britain has to solve its internal problems, the real cause of brexit. It looks pitiful if it simply places the blame on its neighbours.

[rcfurse]

The other old chestnut quoted widely is regulation. It is claimed that all the endless red tape and regulation is down to Brussels (the EU).
Boris the idiot played this card last week claiming that the reason a kipper (which is a smoked (preserved) herring) was wrapped in plastic was down to the EU.
I was given the same "reason" a few years ago when a new layer of bureaucracy was laid on anyone with a private water supply. When I actually dug in a little I found that;
The original regulation did co from Brussels but it applied to anyone using more than 100 tonnes of water a day or supplying more than 100 people.
But when the regulation/guidance got to London they gold plated it and suddenly it applied to anyone using more than 10 tonnes of water a day or supplying more than 20 people.
Guess what then happened? It went to Cardiff where they gold plated it again and suddenly it applied to anyone using more than 1 tonne of water a day or supplying more than 5 people.

The UK has built up a formidable army of politicians and civil servants who feel that their job is to regulate us all for our own "safety". Just consider how much is spent on endless road signs, speed camera "safety" partnerships (actually just a tax dressed up as something else) and more and more regulation. Britain only works if someone actually makes money by trading and supplying things other people want to buy. Brexit will make our products more expensive and more difficult to buy. Brexit will shrink the size of the "invisibles" sector (largely the City of London) and while it is very topical to bash bankers the reality is that the City of London earns about 33% of ALL the UK tax revenues. If it is shut out of Europe (which it will be) the Governments tax take will drop by 10-20% - over time.

The BREXIT vote was, as has been pointed out earlier, largely a vote about mass immigration. Because this topic was considered taboo there was not a proper debate and most people voted ignorant of the massive financial effect it would have on the nation. We will all be poorer but the people who will lose most will be the people who cannot afford it, It will go down in history as one of the most stupid national decisions ever made whatever Boris tell you. And he would have told you anything you wanted to hear if he thought it would get him to No10. That was all he was ever interested in.

[UAB807F]

Well.... I'm not even going to try to change your views on the matter so I'll bow out of this thread with just a couple of corrections.

Firstly, despite what the BBC and media tell you, the Brexit vote wasn't all about immigration. Lord Ashcroft undertook a poll on the day of the referendum of Leave voters. The largest single percentage, 49%, said they'd voted leave because of sovereignty with only 33% citing immigration. Google it if you don't believe me.

Secondly, there are mechanisms to speed up customs clearance with pre-approval, all it takes is willingness on both sides. If trade from outside the EU is such a problem due to customs then it is rather strange that our trade with the EU is dropping and external trade rising, 56% external, 44% EU. If the CU/SM is so essential to our trade then I'm a bit puzzled as to why this is, care to explain ?

Thirdly, we're not going to "crash out" of anything, that is just drama queen stuff. IF (and that's a big "if") we leave on Oct31st we will still leave without a trade deal even if the current WA is somehow accepted. All the WA does is kick the can down the road for 2 years and with every likelihood of us being in exactly the same position in 24 months time because, hey, why should the EU negotiate when we're paying them money to do so and can't leave until they say so ?

Final comment - the EU comprises of 27 countries in a world of 195+ and yes, it does (at the moment) have a large market. But look at other countries and see how they manage. The largest populations, land area and markets are outside the EU and the facts show that our trade balance is shifting in that direction. Count how many EU countries there are in the top 20 on the list. (hint, we are 21)

https://www.worldometers.info/geography/how-many-countries-are-there-in-the-world/